Agenda item

Christine McInnes (Director of Education) and Nick Abrahams (Assistant Director Education, West Kent) were in attendance for this item

1.    Mr Love (Cabinet Member for Education and Skills) introduced the report which set out the Kent Commissioning Plan for Education 2025-2029. It was an annual rolling program which forecasted the number of school places needed across different phases and types of schools in Kent. The forecasts were based on collected data and meetings with local leaders and planners. Kent was noted for its accurate forecasting, with a 1.1% accuracy rate in 2023. A new factor in the latest plan was the monitoring of potential displacements of children from independent schools to the maintained sector due to the Government's decision to tax independent school fees. The plan was a live document. Mr Love expressed his thanks to the Assistant Director of Education, Mr Abrahams, and his officers.

2.    Mr Abrahams (Assistant Director Education) elaborated further and advised that the document also touched upon other areas where the authority had statutory responsibilities, such as the post-16 sector and early years education, though these were not covered in as much detail. The overall trends in the plan reflected a continuation of patterns observed in recent years. Specifically, there was a declining number of children entering primary schools, which was linked to a decrease in birth rates in Kent since 2012. For context, the number of births in Kent peaked at just over 18,000 in 2012 and dropped to 15,000 by 2023. While birth rates significantly impacted the number of children requiring school places, other factors such as migration and house building also played a role. The decline in primary school enrolments was not uniform across the county; some areas had seen more significant drops than others. Projected forecast anticipated that there would not be a significant need for additional primary school places in the next five to ten years, depending on future birth rates. However, areas with substantial house building, particularly rural areas with limited existing school capacity,  would potentially require additional places. In contrast, the secondary sector continued to experience pressures from larger cohorts moving through key stage 2; areas like Sittingbourne and Maidstone faced ongoing demand for year 7 places. Engagement with borough and district councils in developing the commissioning plan remained key. These discussions provide valuable local intelligence and helped align the plan with local strategic activities, such as local plans. Discussions regarding improved sharing and accessibility of the underlying data within the commissioning plan to better inform district and borough councils was ongoing.

3.    Further to comments and questions from Members it was noted:

·         Members commented on the impact of the retrospective VAT on education and the upcoming High Court case by the Independent Schools Council challenging this decision. Forecasts predicted a 3-7% reduction in independent school pupils, potentially exceeding half a million nationwide, with some independent schools potentially requiring closure.

·         Members remarked on the plan's flexibility, noting the need to adapt to unintended consequences, such as accommodating Ukrainian families. Furthermore, Members commented on the potential impact from geographical pressures caused via governments devolution agenda.

·         In response to concerns regarding the new requirement for 9 to 36-month provision starting in September 2025, and Kent’s ability to deliver and monitor this, assurance was provided that the staggered widening of eligibility for free nursery places had been beneficial for the sector. The final phase of this expansion was set for September 2025. The early years sector had adapted to changing parental needs and government requirements, allowing time for model adjustments and data collection. Continuous monitoring was essential, and while there were initial concerns about potential deficits in places, the situation had improved. Early years colleagues engaged with providers to assess and adjust provision, ensuring sufficient places for different age groups. Currently, there were no critical concerns about meeting demand, however, this would continue to be monitored.

·         With regard to proposed housing plans without planning permission and therefore did not feature in a borough's adopted local plan, it was noted that the current forecasts for school places only included housing developments that had received planning permission. This approach was driven by the Department for Education (DFE), which set the technical rules for the forecasts. Discussions were underway with borough and district colleagues regarding potential development of a parallel forecast to provide a broader picture of the likely longer-term impacts of housing developments that had not yet received planning permission. These scenarios however would only provide an indicative insight and carry less certainty.

4.    RESOLVED that Cabinet agree the Commissioning Plan for Education Provision in Kent 2025-29