Agenda item

(1)         Mr Mark Rogers from the Met Office gave a presentation. The accompanying slides are contained within the electronic agenda papers on the KCC website.

(2)       Mr Rogers said that the UK Climate projections (UKPC) had been launched at the end of 2018 using the most recent scientific evidence to provide a comprehensive analysis of how the climate in the UK could change by the end of the 21^st Century.  This document updated its predecessor which had been published in 2009.  The work had been led by DEFRA with the Environment Agency and the Met Office as delivery partners.  The purpose of this work was to help inform decision-making so that adaptations could be made, and resilience built over the next 50 to 100 years.   

(3)       Mr Rogers then said that projections were based on the latest developments in climate science, including state-of-the-art global climate models, innovative regional climate models and up to date observational data.  They were based on four different “Representative Concentration Pathway” (RCP) levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. These ranged from RCP 2.6 (which was compatible with the aim of limiting global warming since pre-industrial levels to below 2?C) to RCP 8.5, which represented the “reasonable worst-case scenario.” 

(4)       Mr Rogers said that overall in the UK, the headline findings were that there would be hotter, drier summers leading to more thunderstorms and torrential downpours.  There would be a greater frequency of milder, wetter winters leading to more river flooding.   There would also be further rises in sea level around the entire UK coastline, particularly in the South.  It was projected that by 2100 there would be a rise of between 29 cm and 115 cm depending on whether there was a low or high emission scenario.

(5)       Mr Rogers picked the two periods 2020-39 and 2060-79 for deeper analysis in South East England.   The average winter temperatures were most likely to rise by up to 1^oC in the 2020-39 period.  Depending on RCP levels, there would be an increase of between 1 and 3^O between 2060 and 79. Winter precipitation would increase by up to 10% between 2020 and 2039. 

(6)       Summer temperatures were expected to rise by 1 to 2^o between 2020 and 2039 and between 1 to 2^o or 3 to 4^o between 2060 and 2079 depending on RCP emission scenarios.  Precipitation levels would fall by up to 10% between 2020 and 39 and between 10 and 40% from 2016 70 79, again depending on RCP emission scenarios.

(7)       Mr Rogers replied to a question from Mrs Doyle by saying that the projections did not take natural phenomena such as volcanoes into account because it could not be predicted if and when they were likely to occur.  

(8)       In response to a question from Mr Lewin, Mr Rogers said that the modelling for UKPC18 was far better than for UKPC9.  In his view, any mis-assessment of the projections within the study were more likely to be on the side of caution than otherwise.   The next projections were likely to take place in ten years’ time.  Meanwhile, the new projections would continue to be monitored. 

(9)       Mr Scholey asked whether the projections would lead to the Environment Agency altering its flood risk maps.  Mr Heeley (Environment Agency) replied that they were awaiting guidance on how to apply the latest figures and would begin updating at that stage.

(10)     Mr Tant said that the flood map that was used for planning took no account of climate change.  The Environment Agency was preparing guidance which was due to be released later in the year.  This would take account of UKPC18.  There were, however, situations where there was a statutory need to take climate change into account.  UKPC9 would continue to be in use for this purpose for the moment.

(11)     Mr Heeley said that Flood Zones 1,2 and 3 within the flood maps were based on present day climatic conditions.   The hydrologic and coastal models that had been developed over the previous few years contained scenarios which factored in climate change. 

(12)     The Chairman said that the current climate models often worked to a 1 in 100 or 200 year risk. It was likely that once the Environment Agency had absorbed the new projections, they would need to make practical adjustments by, for instance, reviewing whether a 1 in 100-year design continued to be fit for purpose. 

(13)     Mr Heeley said that the Environment Agency would need to ensure that any projects it brought forward were climate change resilient and that the new data was factored into its project planning when assessing cost benefits. 

(14)     Mr Mortimer said that some 28 local authorities in the UK were in the process of issuing a climate change emergency policy. As Leader of Maidstone BC he had asked Environmental Officers to look into questions such as emissions and the carbon footprint in the Borough.  He asked whether there was any advice that could assist. 

(15)     Mr Rogers said that everyone should try to do what they could, either as individuals or as a local authority or national government.  At the same time, it needed to be understood that emissions had a global impact. This meant that Britain would be as affected as the rest of the World if other countries did not reduce their emissions in the same way as the UK. Locally, the main benefit of emissions reduction was to people’s health.  

(16)     Mr Harwood said that a number of local authority climate change strategies had looked at both mitigation and adaptation.   The importance of adaptation was underlined by UKPC18.  Spatial and other planning work could be undertaken in terms of making space for water (surface, fluvial and coastal) or by providing tree cover to enable better percolation of water into the ground.  It was also increasingly important to safeguard and conserve groundwater resources. 

(17)     The Chairman said that it would be very useful for the Committee to receive a further update in the near future on how the climate change projections set out in UKPC18 would affect the south east region, including Kent.

(18)     RESOLVED that Mr Mark Rogers be thanked for his presentation and that the significance of the climate change projections contained within UKPC18 be noted.